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  • Feel Good: 10,000 hours or 10,000 steps.

    February 19th, 2024

    10, 000 hours in learning is Malcom Gladwell’s rule for achieving true expertise in any skill. Based on research that practice is the essence of achieving genius, this number was set. Walking 10,000 steps a day can help reducing the risk of common health problems such as heart disease, diabetes, blood pressure and of course depression and obesity too. Again, the number 10,000! Unfortunately, Edward Deming, our Sadhguru of Quality advocated us to eliminate numeric goals!

    Is it not funny to know that the Japanese character for number 10,000 appearing like a person walking (万) is the reason behind the target of 10,000 daily steps? A clever marketing campaign ahead of 1964 Tokyo Olympics made 万 popular, the idea caught on and the number got struck. Priyanka Runwal refers to recent study in National geographic article published on January 3,2023 indicating that short bursts of vigorous activity every day – climbing stairs, carrying a heavy load of groceries, or stepping up the pace of housework – can provide substantial health benefits. University of Sydney exercise scientist Emmanuel found that three one-minute bursts of intense physical activity every day can lower a person’s risk of death by up to 40%. Should we spend 3 minutes or over 100 minutes for 10,000 steps in a day?

    Can you become an expert by doing the same task or read the same book for 10,000 hours? What is the sanctity of 10,000 hours goal for learning to master any skill? In his book ‘Into the Impossible,’ Brian Keating asks, “while learning to fly an airplane, can logging 10,000 hours in the same plane in same weather conditions, in same take off & landing runways make one expert pilot?” While the variation matters, Is the number same for everyone regardless of innate aptitude? He later clarifies that the number is a statistical average – within the group of talented people what separate the best from the mean is that 10,000 hours of effort! The spirit behind the number 10,000 is getting into the talent pool either by nature or nurture and then boil for hours in varying vessels to get distilled as an expert!

     When Deming said, “eliminate numerical goals, numerical quotas and management by objectives,” he meant, “provide required resources and leadership to achieve goals than shouting a number.” We can interpret it as the difference between an ‘arbitrary number’ and number backed by some science, possibly data science for management insights. On an individual basis, we can see it as difference between goals we set for ourselves and numerical goals others impose upon us.

    Tamil Nadu in India has the highest number of Ramsar sites in India. Last weekend I was at Karaivetti Bird Sanctury, one among them. Neither I could clock 10,000 steps on that day nor able to identify all species, maybe I will have to clock many more hours of bird watching to reach the 10,000 hours goal! At the end of the day, I felt good being one of the first few to visit the latest Ramsar site declared on January 31, 2024.

    Arbitrarily some numbers become popular periodically. Tendencies make us to go with the trends. Should we fall trap for ‘feel good metrics’ by ignoring facts behind and feel bad later? Measure what matters.

  • When Geography becomes History

    January 24th, 2024

    BYE FROM NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

    The year 2024 also started with National Geographic magazine making the heartbreaking announcement that it will go off newsstands and said goodbye to all staff and avid lovers of the iconic magazine with yellow bordered cover page carrying wonderful photographs and insightful articles on environment.

    “Like one of the endangered species whose impending extinction it has chronicled, National Geographic magazine has been on a relentlessly downward path, struggling for vibrancy in an increasingly unforgiving ecosystem”, Washington Post said in its obituary.

    ELIXIRS OF LIFE IN DANGER

    According to Annual Global Report 2023 published by National Centres for Environmental Information, last year was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This value is 0.15°C (0.27°F) more than the previous record set in 2016.

    WWF Scientists say that if emissions continue to rise unchecked, the Arctic would be devoid of ice in couple of decades as ocean and air temperatures continue to rise rapidly. Erratic weather and disasters prefixed with ‘natural’ will become new normal globally.

    “ Eighty-seven percent of lifeforms on this planet – microbes to worms, human beings, and all vegetation on the planet is sustained by an average of thirty-nine inches of topsoil and during the last forty years, forty percent of the world’s topsoil has been lost”, observes Sadhguru, the Mystic Guru and the proponent of the Conscious Planet movement to Save the  Soil. Sadhguru predicts that agriculture will become a history in 45 to 60 years, if we don’t act now. Not only losing the topsoil above but also suction of the inner fossil fuel and burning the atmosphere around will make the earth just a suffocating shell ready to crumble.

    Necessary actions to fix the soil can take care of water which is another elixir for life. There are some global actions to control the pollution in the air for the later generations to enjoy some oxygen to breathe.  Based on the concept of Pancha Boodha, there are two more elements ‘fire’ and ‘space’ apart from the earth, air and water which collaborate to make the life happen. Fire requires oxygen as fuel and so depends on the quality of air. Space is the fabric on which the entire ‘tamasha’ happens.

    DE-EXTINCTION TO EXTEND LIFE ?

    If deteriorations go beyond certain level, it may not be possible to revive due to multiple feedback loops involved in the ecosystem as reported in a study by IIT Mumbai. The study published in Dec 2023 issue of Nature reveals that even though greening of India has increased over the last two decades, carbon uptake by forests has reduced due the impact of global warming. Will the unforgiving ecosystem make our earth history too? 

    Once endangered, the murphy radio which I got hooked to during the childhood has reincarnated as FM radio on the move providing hundreds of jobs to radio jockeys and income to businesses. They play some music apart from dancing to the music of the market transforming poor listeners to rich consumers. Not to talk about radio jockeys becoming psychologists, coaches, sociologists, judges, and counsellors liberally letting out all possible advice when they run out of humor.

    Evolutionary changes in technology and business ecosystem made the radio come out of its hibernation. What about other life forms? De-extinction is the process of resurrecting the extinct species.  Which species will de-extinct the homo sapiens?

    UNIVERSAL HISTORY IN THE MAKING

    Our universe has survived 13.8 billion years. “It will not be until 22 billion years before sun finishes its job and becomes a white dwarf or 1014  years before all stars fade or 10100 years before the galactic-mass black holes too evaporate and the entire universe would be gone”, according to Richard Gott, professor of astrophysics at Princeton University. It will be a cause for concern only if we evolve into homo super sapiens and mange to exist in 22 billionth year.

    Nature seems to have its own conscious agenda while homo sapiens have got into a growing consuming agenda. Ecologist and conscientious Tamil writer Nakeeran recollected an incident after watching the so called ‘naturalists’ assembling in front of the marina beach to raise “Save Nature” slogan and dismiss, but not before a press meet. A young local school kid watching the incident seems to have remarked “is it not that nature protects us, why these people want to protect nature?” The answer seems to be in the question which can raise further questions.

    If we believe in the idea of multiverse, the existence of our universe is just a bubble on one of the branches of the multiverse. Super homo sapiens may find ways to diffuse from one verse to another before end of our epoch and universal history will be made. In the meantime, minimalist living can be the maxim for the current geography.

  • AI landscape: Aitomation to Aipps, but not yet – Aepps

    January 18th, 2024

    Advent of GenAI

    To predict whether AI will make an impact in 2024 requires natural intelligence and a little data. Generative AI (GenAI) caught the fancy of all generations. Two months after launch, ChatGPT broke records as the fastest-growing consumer app in history, until Meta’s Threads overtook it. ChatGPT now has about one hundred million weekly active users while more than 92% of Fortune 500 companies are using the platform, according to OpenAI.

    Investments into AI

    Nvidia, the makers of chip that power training models for AI saw its market value shooting up by $800 billion making it the biggest percentage gainer among the large tech companies in the last year. According to AMD, Nvidia’s rival, market for AI chips for data centers would hit $400 billion by 2027, which is equal to the pre-covid global market size of all semiconductors. Companies like OpenAI building large language models attracted about $27 billion as per PitchBook. Goldman Sachs observes that investment in AI is just below 0.5% of GDP and estimate it to go beyond 2.5% of GDP by 2032. Will these investments result in improved productivity and better business results for users of AI? Looks like what happened during the gold rush when providers of mining equipment, tools and supplies made more profit than the people who managed to hit the gold!

    Return of Investment

    Tech companies are the earliest gainers from employee cost as several back-office jobs are getting replaced by AI. Study by Stanford author Brynjolfsson found that average productivity of call center workers rose by 14% within a few weeks of using the AI infused technology. Interesting thing to note is that the gains were 35% for lowest skill level workers. Lower the skill levels, higher the gains to the business as those jobs become extinct. The focus now is on how best to aitomate (‘ai’ based tools to automate tasks – my own terminology) tasks that can boost productivity. It is going to be a while before we see a real killer app based on AI that can fetch several fold returns.

    Cautious Business and Road Blocks

    Spending on Gen AI this year will not be more than $20 billion, which is just one fifth of the spend on IT security according to Gartner. Businesses will scale up spend over the next few years after a lot of trial and errors resulting in monetizable Aipps (‘AI’ based apps – again my own terminology). While the technology is progressing from Artificial Narrow Intelligence to Artificial General Intelligence, issues such as hallucination, bias, deep fakes, ethics besides the cost are to be controlled for AI to take over as pilot from just being co-pilot.

    A Flashback

    Recently, I landed upon a photograph of mine talking at a round table conference in early 90’s on Artificial Intelligence at the Vishakhapatnam chapter of ’The Institution of Engineers’. Three decades back, I led a team to develop an ‘Expert Mine Planning System’ at Ramco Systems, India with ‘expert systems’ approach in the blasting module. Expert systems emulate human decision making by reasoning through specific body of knowledge represented within system as ‘if-then-else’ rather than through procedural code. A technical paper about the system was accepted at the XXIV APCOM (Application of Computers and Operations Research in the Mineral Industries) conference held during Oct 31- Nov 3, 1993, at Montreal, Canada. Internationally well-known commercial vendors of ‘Mine Planning’ systems took serious note of our product and were surprised that such a product development was happening in India while the entire Indian IT was actually waiting for the Y2K to happen to get global recognition.

    Narrow, not Super

    Developments in cloud and big data over the decades have paved way for the current avatars of GenAI and AI has become a household term hallucinating between fake and real. Arrival of Aepps (Emotional Intelligence aware artificial intelligence apps – now you know that this is my terminology too) in times to come can catapult AI into the next generation. My comments are of ’narrow’ trending towards ‘general’ but not ‘super’ going by the categories of Artificial Intelligence.

  • Ethics in Artificial Intelligence

    January 15th, 2024

    She is on the 100 Brilliant Women in AI Ethics List according to her LinkedIn profile. With the advent of Gen AI, human bias become more pervasive, aided by the big data naturally reflecting the human. Ethics in AI is definitely more important as intelligence is becoming artificial. Machine learning models cannot be blamed for the biased data using which they learn. Human biases in color, class and creed get naturally impregnated into the learnt models, the results of which are consumed by the public at large. Property built through Intellect and Privacy go for a task as the devices become more intrusive and omnipresent. Distinguishing fake from real is becoming a day-to-day challenge as in an old Tamil movie song ‘unmai ethu poi ethu onnum puriyale, namma kanna nammala namba mudiyele‘.  Regulatory framework & policy on the one hand and using the same AI technology on the other hand the world is attempting to build an ethical neural layer in artificial intelligence. But the larger question is whose ethics? Suchana Seth, who is under custody for suspected murder her own 4-year-old son in Goa is one of the global top women in ethics for AI. It appears that it is ok for her to lose her son as long as her estranged husband is deprived of meeting his son. An eye for eye seems to be the ethics under play for not willing to go by the court arrangement for the couple who didn’t see eye to eye. The question ‘who should make policy or build technology for ethics in AI’ will remain a tough question but we get data to answer ‘who shouldn’t’.

  • Process is in blood, saves lives

    January 14th, 2024

    2024 started with news of escape of 379 people aboard Japan Airlines (JAL) Airbus A350 catching fire while landing after a collision with a smaller aircraft at Tokyo’s Haneda airport on 2nd January. While the media reported the escape as miraculous, not so obvious is the innate nature of Japanese discipline of the crew that proved that 20 minutes is more than sufficient to evacuate all the passengers. Process in the blood manifested as calm behavior and careful action sequence ‘by the book’ during those crucial minutes to get the passengers out. The attitude results out of the dignity of work irrespective of the title and level in the hierarchy. Right weight process prescribing minimum things to maximize purpose is the core contributor to the successful outcome. The world keeps us teaching, if we are prepared to listen, learn and live the learning.

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